There has been intense debate in the literature on what determines growth in an economy. Some scholars believe that increases in the population of a nation tantamount to economic progress, in that, it provides a huge base of labour force. However, others have argued that these increases could be a curse rather than a blessing, because if the increase in the number of people in the economy is not supported with conscious efforts at training and holistic development of human capital, then disaster is eminent. But a few scholars also believe that population assumes a neutral position in economic growth process, that is, population does not directly impact growth directly, but it interaction with other growth determinants (such as human capital development, research and development, technology and so on) is what actually determine growth or otherwise in the economy. This paper therefore sought to assess the role of these growth determinants in economic growth performance in Nigeria. The study employed time series data for the period 1981 – 2013. Using Augmented Cobb-Douglass Production Function (gleaning from Solow Growth Model), and relying on error correction modelling framework, the econometric results established the fact that population growth has the potentials of fostering economic growth in Nigeria, but underlined the fact that this and other benefits would depend on, not only the chunk of the entire population that is active, but the quality of the population. Amongst other policy options suggested, it was advocated that policy measures that will foster target-oriented and skill-enhancing education and training should be designed and implemented. Provision of accessible and affordable healthcare for a healthy population was also advocated if Nigeria’s population growth must be advantageous.
| Published in | Journal of World Economic Research (Volume 5, Issue 4) |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.jwer.20160504.12 |
| Page(s) | 31-42 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2016. Published by Science Publishing Group |
Population Growth, Economic Growth, Human Capital Development, Cointegration, ECM
| [1] | Adelakun, O. J. (2011) Human Capital Development and Economic Growth in Nigeria. European Journal of Business and Management, 3 (9). |
| [2] | Adetiloye, K. A. and K. A. Adeyemo (2012): Domestic Investment, Capital Formation and Population Growth. Developing Country Studies. www.iiste.org, 2 (7). |
| [3] | Adewole, A. O. (2012): “Effect of Population on Economic Development in Nigeria: A Quantitative Assessment”. International Journal of Physical and Social Sciences, http://www.ijmras.us, 2 (5). |
| [4] | Akpan, U. F. (2011), Cointegration, Causality and Wagner’s Hypothesis: Time Series Evidence for Nigeria, 1970 – 2008. Journal of Economic Research (16), 59-84. |
| [5] | Awe, A. A. and S. O. Ajayi (2010) The Nexus Between Human Capital Inestment and Economic Growth in Nigeria. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences, 7 (1), 1-7. |
| [6] | Becker G. S., Murphy K. M. and Tamura R. (1994). “Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education” (3rd Edition). The University of Chicago Press. United States. |
| [7] | Bloom, D. E. and Canning, D. (2000) “The Health and Wealth of Nations”, Science. 287 (18), 1207-1209. |
| [8] | Bloom, D. E., and Canning, D. (2003): “The health and poverty of nations: from theory to Practice”. Journal of Human Development, 4(1), 47-71. |
| [9] | Boserup, E. (1965). “The Conditions of Agricultural Growth”. Chicago: Aldine |
| [10] | Boserup, E. (1976). Environment, Population and Technology in Primitive Societies. Population and Development Review. 2 (1), 21-36. |
| [11] | Boserup, E. (1981) Population and Technological Change, University of Chicago Press, Chicago. |
| [12] | Bremner, J., López-Carr, D., Suter, L. and Davis, J. (2010) ‘Population, poverty, environment, and climate dynamics in the developing world’, Interdisciplinary Environmental Review. 11 2/3), 112–126. |
| [13] | Brown, H. (1954): The Challenge of Man’s Future: An Inquiry Concerning the Condition of Man During the Years That Lie Ahead, Viking, New York. |
| [14] | Campbell, O. and T. Agbiokoro (2014): “Human Capital and Economic Growth: A Three Stage Least Squares Approach”. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, www.iiste.org, 5 (5). |
| [15] | Cincotta, R. P. and Engelman, R. (1997) Economics and Rapid Change: The Influence of Population Growth. Population Action International, October. |
| [16] | Cohen, J. E. (1995) “Population Growth and Earth’s Human Carrying Capacity. American Association for the Advancement of Science, http//www.jstor.org, 269 (5222), 341 - 346 |
| [17] | Dennis, E.F. (1962) Sources of Economic Growth in United States and the Alternatives Before US. Committee of Economic Development. New York, USA. |
| [18] | Ekong, S. (1995) Economic Dislocation and Recovery in Lebanon. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC., 64. |
| [19] | Geda, A., N. Ndung’u and D. Zerfu (2012): Applied Time Series Econometrics: A Practical Guide for Macroeconomic Researchers with Focus on Africa, University of Nairobi Press, Nairobi, Kenya. |
| [20] | Gemmell, N. (1999) Wagner’s Law, Relative Prices and the Size of the Public Sector. Manchester School of Economics and Social Studies, 58, (4), 361–377. |
| [21] | Grossman (1972) On the Concept of Health Capital and the Demand for Health. The Journal of Political Economy, 80 (2), 223-255. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1830580. |
| [22] | Gujarati, D. N. (2003) Basic Econometrics, (3rd), McGraw-Hill/Irwin, New York, USA. |
| [23] | Harte, J. (2007) ‘Human population as a dynamic factor in environmental degradation’, Population and Environment, 28, (4–5), 223–236. |
| [24] | Hern, W. M. (1993): “Has The Human Species Become A Cancer On The Planet? A Theoretical View of Population Growth As A Sign of Pathology”. Current World Leaders,. 36(6), 1089–1124. |
| [25] | Herzer,D., F. Nowark-Lehmann and B. Silverstove (2004). “Export-Led Growth in Chile: Assessing the Role of Export Composition in Productivity Growth.” www.igi.wiwi.uni-goettingen.de |
| [26] | IFAD (2012). Rural Poverty in Nigeria. HYPERLINK http://www.ruralpovertyportal.org |
| [27] | IFAD (2013). Rural Poverty in Africa. http://www.ruralpovertyportal.org |
| [28] | IMF (2014) World Population and Demographic Studies. |
| [29] | Isola W. A. (2002): “The Economic Education Linkage: Evidence from Nigeria (1980-1999)” Lagos Journal of Educational Administration and Planning, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 16-32. |
| [30] | Isola, W. A. and R. A. Alani (2012). “Human Capital Development and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria.” Asian economic and Financial Review. http//aessweb.com. 2 (7), 813–827. |
| [31] | Kanu, S. I. and B. A. Ozurumba (2014). Capital Formation and Economic Growth in Nigeria. Global Journal of Human-Social Science: Economics, 14 (4). |
| [32] | Karev, G. P. (2002): “Dynamics of Inhomogeneous Population and Global Demography Models”. Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, National Institute of health, gkarev@hotmail.com. |
| [33] | Manning, L. M. and D. Adriacanos (1993). “Dollar Movements and Inflation: A Cointegration Analysis.” Applied Economics, 25, 1483-1488. |
| [34] | Marquette, C. (1997): “Population and Environment Relationships in Developing Countries: A Selected Review of Approaches and Methods”. Working Paper, Chr. Michelson Institute, Development Studies and Human Rights, Bergen, Norway, October, WP 1997; 15. |
| [35] | MEA (2005) Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Synthesis Reports, Island Press, Washington DC. |
| [36] | Nwosu, C., A. O. Dike and K. K. Okwara (2014): The Effects of Population Growth on Economic Growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Engineering and Science, 3 (11), 07–18. |
| [37] | Oser, J. and W. C. Blanchfield (1975), The History of Economic Thought, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich Publishers Inc. USA. |
| [38] | Perron, P. (1997) Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables, Journal of Econometrics, 80, (2), 335–385. |
| [39] | Penck, A. (1925) Sitzungsberichte der Preuβischen, Z. Geopolitik, (2). 330. |
| [40] | Prettner, K and T. Trimborn (2012): “Demographic Change and R&D – Based Economic Growth: Reconciling Theory and Evidence”. Centre for European Governance and Development Research, University of Gottingen, Germany. |
| [41] | Schultz T. W (1961) “Investment in Human Capital.” American Economic Review Vol. 51, No. 1, pp. 1-17. |
| [42] | Schultz, T. P. (1992) “The Role of Education and Human Capital in Economic Development: An Empirical Assessment.” Yale Economic Growth Center Discussion Papers Series. 670. |
| [43] | Shultz T. P. (1961) “Education and Economic Growth” in: Social Forces Influencing American, Education. Ed. N.B. Henry Chicago. National Society for the Study of Education. University of Chicago Press. |
| [44] | Solow R (1956). “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 70(1), pp. 65-94. |
| [45] | Thuku, G.K., G. Paul and O. Almadi (2013): “The Impact of Population Change on Economic Growth in Kenya” International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, Vol. 3(6), pp 43-60. |
| [46] | Uche, E., O. A. Ihugha and C. Nwosu (2013): “Causal Relationship between Nigeria Government Budget Allocation to the Education Sector and Economic Growth”. Discourse Journal of Educational Research, www.resjournals.org/IJER, 1(8), 54–64. |
| [47] | Ukpong, I. G., I. D. Ekpebu and N. I. Ofem (2013): “Cointegration Inferences on Issues of Poverty and Population Growth in Nigeria”. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics, http//www.academicjournals.org/JDAE,. 5(7), 277 -283. |
| [48] | World Development Indicator (2014) Database for Development, World Bank. |
| [49] | Westing, A. H. (1981): Environment Conservation, 8, 177. |
| [50] | WHES (2012). World Hunger and Poverty Facts and Statistics. World Hunger Education Services. http://worldhunger.org. |
APA Style
Godwin Essang Esu, Ubong Udonwa. (2016). Determinants of Economic Growth in Nigeria: Population Perspective. Journal of World Economic Research, 5(4), 31-42. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20160504.12
ACS Style
Godwin Essang Esu; Ubong Udonwa. Determinants of Economic Growth in Nigeria: Population Perspective. J. World Econ. Res. 2016, 5(4), 31-42. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.20160504.12
AMA Style
Godwin Essang Esu, Ubong Udonwa. Determinants of Economic Growth in Nigeria: Population Perspective. J World Econ Res. 2016;5(4):31-42. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.20160504.12
Share This Article
Twitter
Linked In
Facebook
Copy
Download@article{10.11648/j.jwer.20160504.12,
author = {Godwin Essang Esu and Ubong Udonwa},
title = {Determinants of Economic Growth in Nigeria: Population Perspective},
journal = {Journal of World Economic Research},
volume = {5},
number = {4},
pages = {31-42},
doi = {10.11648/j.jwer.20160504.12},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20160504.12},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.jwer.20160504.12},
abstract = {There has been intense debate in the literature on what determines growth in an economy. Some scholars believe that increases in the population of a nation tantamount to economic progress, in that, it provides a huge base of labour force. However, others have argued that these increases could be a curse rather than a blessing, because if the increase in the number of people in the economy is not supported with conscious efforts at training and holistic development of human capital, then disaster is eminent. But a few scholars also believe that population assumes a neutral position in economic growth process, that is, population does not directly impact growth directly, but it interaction with other growth determinants (such as human capital development, research and development, technology and so on) is what actually determine growth or otherwise in the economy. This paper therefore sought to assess the role of these growth determinants in economic growth performance in Nigeria. The study employed time series data for the period 1981 – 2013. Using Augmented Cobb-Douglass Production Function (gleaning from Solow Growth Model), and relying on error correction modelling framework, the econometric results established the fact that population growth has the potentials of fostering economic growth in Nigeria, but underlined the fact that this and other benefits would depend on, not only the chunk of the entire population that is active, but the quality of the population. Amongst other policy options suggested, it was advocated that policy measures that will foster target-oriented and skill-enhancing education and training should be designed and implemented. Provision of accessible and affordable healthcare for a healthy population was also advocated if Nigeria’s population growth must be advantageous.},
year = {2016}
}
TY - JOUR T1 - Determinants of Economic Growth in Nigeria: Population Perspective AU - Godwin Essang Esu AU - Ubong Udonwa Y1 - 2016/09/07 PY - 2016 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20160504.12 DO - 10.11648/j.jwer.20160504.12 T2 - Journal of World Economic Research JF - Journal of World Economic Research JO - Journal of World Economic Research SP - 31 EP - 42 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2328-7748 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jwer.20160504.12 AB - There has been intense debate in the literature on what determines growth in an economy. Some scholars believe that increases in the population of a nation tantamount to economic progress, in that, it provides a huge base of labour force. However, others have argued that these increases could be a curse rather than a blessing, because if the increase in the number of people in the economy is not supported with conscious efforts at training and holistic development of human capital, then disaster is eminent. But a few scholars also believe that population assumes a neutral position in economic growth process, that is, population does not directly impact growth directly, but it interaction with other growth determinants (such as human capital development, research and development, technology and so on) is what actually determine growth or otherwise in the economy. This paper therefore sought to assess the role of these growth determinants in economic growth performance in Nigeria. The study employed time series data for the period 1981 – 2013. Using Augmented Cobb-Douglass Production Function (gleaning from Solow Growth Model), and relying on error correction modelling framework, the econometric results established the fact that population growth has the potentials of fostering economic growth in Nigeria, but underlined the fact that this and other benefits would depend on, not only the chunk of the entire population that is active, but the quality of the population. Amongst other policy options suggested, it was advocated that policy measures that will foster target-oriented and skill-enhancing education and training should be designed and implemented. Provision of accessible and affordable healthcare for a healthy population was also advocated if Nigeria’s population growth must be advantageous. VL - 5 IS - 4 ER -
Email: